Decline in India’s Total Fertility Rate

Decline in India’s Total Fertility Rate

Why in News? 

According to the latest Sample Registration Survey Statistical Report for 2023, India’s Total Fertility Rate has shown a decline to 1.9. This fall marks the first drop in two years and reflects ongoing social changes.

Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2023

• Crude Birth Rate: In 2023, India’s Crude Birth Rate declined to 18.4 per 1,000 population, showing a small but steady fall from the year before. Rural areas reported a higher CBR of 20.3, compared to 14.9 in urban areas. The range across states was wide, as Bihar registered the highest rate at 25.8, while Tamil Nadu recorded the lowest at 12.0. This long-term decline is consistent, as India’s CBR has reduced from 36.9 in 1971 to the current level in 2023.

• Total Fertility Rate: The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) fell to 1.9 in 2023, a drop after remaining constant at 2.0 in both 2021 and 2022. Rural India registered a higher TFR of 2.1, while urban areas reported 1.5. Historically, the TFR stood at 5.2 in 1971 and has seen a gradual reduction over the decades. The report highlighted that northern states like Bihar (2.8) and Uttar Pradesh (2.6) continue to have TFR above replacement level, while Delhi (1.2) and West Bengal (1.3) are among the lowest.

• Crude Death Rate: The Crude Death Rate stood at 6.4 per 1,000 population nationally, pointing to gradual improvement in survival. Rural regions recorded 6.8, while urban areas had 5.7. Male death rates were higher at 7.2, compared to 5.7 for females. Within states, Chhattisgarh had the highest death rate of 8.3, while Delhi reported the lowest at 4.5. Long-term data reflects a consistent decline, as CDR has fallen from 14.9 in 1971 to this level in 2023.

• Infant Mortality Rate: The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) declined to 25 in 2023, compared to 26 in 2022. Infant survival varied by region, with the rural IMR at 28 compared to 18 in urban areas, showing better child health outcomes in cities. Kerala reported the best outcome with an Infant Mortality Rate of only 5, while states such as Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh recorded much higher figures at 37. Over the last five years, the national IMR has decreased by 7 points, showing gradual improvement in child survival rates.

• Sex Ratio at Birth: The Sex Ratio at Birth during 2021–2023 averaged 917 girls per 1,000 boys, reflecting persistent gender imbalance. This figure reflects improvement from earlier periods but continues to show regional disparity. States like Chhattisgarh (974) and Kerala (971) showed the most balanced ratios, while Uttarakhand (868) and Bihar (897) remained among the weakest. The data underlined that several states, including Delhi, Maharashtra, and Haryana, had SRB values below 900.

• Elderly Population Growth: The proportion of people aged 60 years and above increased to 9.7% in 2023, marking a 0.7 percentage point rise within a year. Kerala, with 15% of its population above 60 years, stands out as the state with the largest elderly share. In contrast, states like Assam, Delhi, and Jharkhand had the lowest elderly share at about 7.6%–7.7%. 

Reasons for Fertility Decline in India

• Delayed Childbearing: Many couples today prefer to marry later and postpone the birth of their first child. Rising costs of education, housing, and healthcare create economic pressure that pushes family planning to later years. The SRS 2023 shows India’s mean age at effective marriage for females has increased steadily.

• Women’s Empowerment: The rise in female literacy and professional opportunities has reshaped fertility choices. Educated women prioritize higher education and career stability before starting families. This empowerment means women now exercise greater agency in deciding family size. The National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5, 2019–21) reported that 67% of currently married women use some method of contraception.

• Urbanization: Urbanization has transformed family structures and fertility outcomes in India. The move from joint families to nuclear households in cities means families focus on fewer children with higher investment per child. City life also brings higher costs of living and greater access to reproductive health services, which together reduce the incentive to have large families.

• Health and Lifestyle Factors: Health issues and modern lifestyles are also influencing fertility levels. Medical research shows that about 10–15% of Indian couples face infertility, often linked to conditions like PCOS, endometriosis, and declining sperm quality. Lifestyle habits such as obesity, smoking, and stress are further reducing reproductive capacity. The World Health Organization has pointed out that fertility naturally declines after the age of 35 for women, which interacts with delayed childbearing trends in India. 

Government Initiatives to Tackle & Uplift Fertility Levels

• Health Programs: The government has expanded maternal and child health services to improve reproductive care. Under the Janani Suraksha Yojana and Pradhan Mantri Surakshit Matritva Abhiyan, millions of women receive free antenatal checkups and institutional delivery support. By ensuring safe pregnancies and reducing maternal deaths, these schemes indirectly support healthier fertility choices.

• Assisted Reproductive Services: The government has promoted National Guidelines for Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) and Surrogacy, which regulate clinics and make infertility treatments more accessible. With estimates suggesting that 10–15% of Indian couples face infertility issues, access to safe ART procedures ensures that couples still have options to conceive. 

• Family Welfare and Planning: The Mission Parivar Vikas, launched in 2016, targets districts with high fertility but also integrates counseling and awareness for couples in lower fertility regions. By giving couples the freedom to plan births safely, the scheme balances preventing overpopulation in some states.

• Incentives for Women: Several state governments now provide direct benefit transfers, maternity benefits, and nutrition support schemes like Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana, which offers cash incentives to pregnant women for wage loss compensation. By reducing the economic burden of childbearing, these programs encourage couples to plan families.

• Education & Awareness: The government has invested in spreading awareness about reproductive health through campaigns under the National Health Mission. Programs promote balanced family size and also stress on the need to address declining fertility in urban and educated populations. Data from NFHS-5 (2019–21) showed higher contraceptive use in urban areas and lower fertility. 

Related Article: Decline in Infant Mortality Rate in India