China’s Water Bomb Near Indian Border

China’s Water Bomb Near Indian Border

Why in News? 

Recently, China has started building a large dam near the Indian border in Tibet on the Brahmaputra River. This has raised serious concerns in India and seen as a potential water bomb threat.

Introduction of China’s Water Bomb Near Indian Border

• Location: The dam is being built in the Nyingchi region of the Tibet Autonomous Region. This region is situated barely 30 kilometers from Arunachal Pradesh, placing it in close proximity to India’s eastern frontier.

• • • At this geographical point, the river curves dramatically, forming a U-shaped bend before it crosses into Indian territory.

• Features: 

• • This new dam is expected to generate over 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity every year. 
  • Once operational, this dam is expected to become the largest hydropower installation on the planet, overtaking even China’s iconic Three Gorges Dam.
  • Its total installed capacity will reach 100,000 megawatts. This capacity will supply electricity to nearly 300 million people in China. 
  • The dam includes five hydropower stations spread across the stretch, aiming to boost energy security and reduce reliance on coal. 
  • The hydropower output could significantly support China’s 2030 Carbon Peak Goals.
  • The estimated cost of the entire project stands at 167.8 billion US dollars. 

Concerns Over China’s Dam Project on the Brahmaputra

• Environmental Risks: 

• The dam construction in the ecologically sensitive Eastern Himalayas presents major environmental threats. It may cause loss of biodiversity and disturb the natural balance of the riverine ecosystem.

• The Brahmaputra carries a dense load of sediments and is notorious for annual flooding during the monsoon season. The new dam may reduce the amount of sediment reaching lower regions.

• • • Dam reservoirs in seismically active zones are prone to a phenomenon known as reservoir-induced seismicity. The Brahmaputra basin lies in a high-risk earthquake zone, might trigger tremors or even large earthquakes.

• Geopolitical Risks:

• • A sudden change in flow levels could harm millions living along its banks. India stands to face the most direct consequences from this dam’s construction.
  • If a border conflict arises, China might use the dam to release excess water, creating a flood-like scenario as a strategic move.
  • Historical patterns of hydro-diplomacy between China and its neighbors, such as Mekong river disputes, suggest that water can become a strategic tool.
  • A 2020 report by an Australian strategic think tank warned that China’s control over rivers flowing into India and Southeast Asia could be weaponized. 

Also Read: China’s Mega Project: Tsangpo Dam

India’s Concerns and Strategic Measures to China’s Water Bomb Dam

• Concerns:

• • • Lack of a Formal Treaty: There is no legally binding water-sharing treaty between India and China on the Brahmaputra. This lack of formality limits India’s ability to respond diplomatically.

• Outdated Agreements: In 2002, India and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to share hydrological data during the monsoon. The last known extension of the MoU expired in 2023, and no new version has been confirmed since then.

• Expert Level Mechanism (ELM): To facilitate dialogue on transboundary rivers, India and China created the Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) in 2006. It has no decision-making powers and has produced limited results over the years.

• Strategic Measures: 

• Domestic Strategy: As a countermeasure, India has started building its own hydropower projects in Arunachal Pradesh to manage water flow and generate power.

• Legally Binding Treaty: India needs to advocate strongly for a formal water-sharing treaty with China to ensure stable and transparent river management. Such a treaty can help establish fixed norms on data exchange, environmental safeguards, and flow guarantees.

• AI-Based Flood Forecasting: India must modernize its water prediction systems. Implementing AI-based flood forecasting models can help authorities react faster to sudden changes in river behavior. Machine learning algorithms can analyze satellite data, and glacial activity.

• Global Framework: India can also advocate for a Global Framework on Transboundary Water Management. This would bring together countries affected by shared rivers to agree on common principles. India could highlight how upstream actions by one country can threaten.