China’s Mega Project: Tsangpo Dam

Why in News? 

Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu raised concerns over China’s Tsangpo Dam project in Tibet. Khandu highlighted the potential ecological and humanitarian impacts on India. He warned that the dam could be used as a “Water Bomb.”

Introduction of Tsangpo Dam Project

• Location and Geographic Significance:
  • The Tsangpo Dam is proposed in Mêdog County, located in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) of China. 
  • This area holds immense geographical significance because it is where the Yarlung Tsangpo River, makes a sharp U-turn and flows towards Arunachal Pradesh in India. This river is known as the Brahmaputra River in India. 
  • The location is particularly notable due to the presence of the world’s deepest gorge, where the river flows approximately 25,154 feet below the Tibetan Plateau. 
  • The area’s challenging terrain and high altitude make this project a massive engineering undertaking.

• Hydropower Potential: 
• • The hydropower capacity of the proposed Tsangpo Dam is extraordinary. The river’s vertical drop of 2,000 meters over a 50-kilometer stretch makes it an ideal site for hydropower generation. 
  • With such a steep incline, the dam can harness immense water pressure to generate an estimated 70 million kilowatts of electricity. 
  • The expected power generation from the dam is around 60,000 megawatts (or 60 gigawatts), which will make it one of the largest sources of hydropower in the world. 
  • This is more than three times the electricity generation capacity of China’s Three Gorges Dam, which is currently the world’s largest hydropower project.
  • The Tsangpo Dam is expected to revolutionize global energy production by becoming a leading player in the clean energy sector.
• Investment and Scale: 
  • The Tsangpo Dam project is set to be the largest infrastructure project globally, with an enormous investment of approximately $137 billion. 
  • This massive scale of investment reflects China’s ambitious goals to harness the hydropower potential of the Yarlung Tsangpo River.

China’s Control and Strategic Benefits from Tsangpo Dam

• Economic Benefits: The scale of the Tsangpo Dam will enhance China’s energy security and its dominance in the global energy market. The construction of the Tsangpo Dam will provide a significant economic boost to the Tibetan Autonomous Region. The project is expected to generate about 20 billion yuan ($3 billion) annually, which can create new economic opportunities in an underdeveloped area. 
• Water Control and Regional Dominance: By controlling the upper Brahmaputra, China holds the key to water regulation in the region. This gives China the power to manipulate water flow, potentially affecting downstream countries like India and Bangladesh. The dam will be a crucial part of China’s strategy to assert control over the region’s natural resources, which could have far-reaching implications for neighboring countries and the broader Indo-Pacific region.
• Support for Renewable Energy and Carbon Neutrality: The Tsangpo Dam also aligns with China’s renewable energy goals. The country is focused on reducing reliance on fossil fuels and increasing its share of clean energy. The hydropower generated by this project will play a critical role in supporting China’s carbon neutrality target by 2060. 
• Alleviating Water Scarcity: China faces severe water scarcity in its northern regions due to overuse, industrialization, and climate change. By controlling the flow of the Yarlung Tsangpo, China can potentially divert water northward under its South-North Water Diversion Project, helping to alleviate water stress in arid areas like Beijing, Hebei, and Tianjin. 

Concerns Over the Tsangpo Dam Project

• Environmental and Ecological Risks
  • The Brahmaputra River is essential for agriculture and ecosystem stability in the downstream regions of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Bangladesh. A large dam could disrupt the flow of silt, which is vital for soil fertility. This will affect agriculture by reducing the productivity of farmlands. 
  • The construction of the dam could also lead to a loss of biodiversity. The region is home to many endangered species and is considered an ecological hotspot. The disruption of the river’s flow can impact habitats and threaten local wildlife.
  • Changes in the river’s dynamics may also increase the risk of extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts, due to climate change.
  • The dam’s location is prone, the region is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. A large infrastructure project in such a location increases the risk of catastrophic flooding in case of failure. The dam could contribute to deforestation and increase greenhouse gas emissions.
• Water Security and Geopolitical Risks
  • Experts warn that it could significantly disrupt the flow of water in the river. This can lead to water shortages during the dry season and cause flooding during the monsoon. 
  • The potential for weaponization of water (water bomb) is also a major concern. China’s control over the river gives it leverage over downstream nations like India and Bangladesh. 
  • This increases tensions in the region and raises fears that the river could be manipulated for strategic purposes.
  • The dam could also lead to water pollution. The stagnant water behind the dam may collect pollutants, affecting the water quality downstream. This would impact the health and drinking water supply of millions of people in the affected areas.

Concerns for India Regarding Water Sharing with China

• Lack of Formal Water-sharing Agreement: Unlike the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan, there is no similar formal agreement between India and China regarding the Brahmaputra River. The absence of such an agreement leaves India vulnerable to unilateral actions by China, especially with regard to water flow regulation. Without clear rules and guidelines, it is difficult to ensure fair and equitable sharing of water resources.
• Expired MoU: In 2002, India and China signed an MoU to exchange hydrological data, this was extended multiple times, but the MoU expired in 2023, and as of now, it has not been renewed. These agreements were non-binding and lacked mechanisms for resolving disputes. Without a renewal, India faces the risk of not receiving timely information about water flow changes.
• Ineffectiveness of ELM: The Expert Level Mechanism (ELM), set up in 2006, was intended to address water-related issues and facilitate dialogue between India and China. However, despite being in place for nearly two decades, this mechanism has proven ineffective in resolving major disputes or addressing water-sharing challenges.
• Absence of Global Framework for Transboundary Water: Neither India nor China, along with other riparian countries, are signatories to the UN Watercourses Convention (1997). This international framework regulates the use and conservation of transboundary watercourses. The absence of this global legal framework complicates water cooperation, as there are no international obligations to ensure equitable sharing and environmental protection of rivers that flow across borders.

India’s Strategic Measures to Tackle Tsangpo Dam Challenges

• India should advocate for a legally binding water-sharing treaty with China. The agreement should focus on mutual trust and equitable river management, ensuring fair distribution and utilization of transboundary river resources like the Brahmaputra.
• Develop advanced water storage systems, flood control measures, and hydropower projects in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam to mitigate the risks posed by disruptions in water flow.
• Focus on projects like the 10 GW hydropower plant in the Dibang Valley, which will boost India’s energy security and water management capacity.
• Focus on projects like the 10 GW hydropower plant in the Dibang Valley and Siang Hydropower Dam will boost India’s energy security and water management capacity. These strategic moves will be helpful to counter potential impacts from China’s hydropower projects on the Brahmaputra River. 
• Implement AI-based flood forecasting tools for accurate predictions and real-time hydrological data sharing with downstream nations to manage risks effectively.
• Engage with global stakeholders to pressure China into adopting sustainable and cooperative practices in managing transboundary rivers.

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