UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025

UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025

Why in News?

Recently, the sixteenth edition of the Emissions Gap Report 2025 has been released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Despite nations’ pledges under Nationally Determined Contributions, the report highlighted growing concern over climate commitments and rising global temperatures.

What is the Emissions Gap Report?

• About: The Emissions Gap Report is an annual assessment that compares the global greenhouse-gas emissions projected if current national commitments are met, and the emission levels required to stay aligned with the temperature-goals of the Paris Agreement. It identifies the shortfall — the “gap” — between where we are heading and where we should be to keep global warming under control. The report has been published in this series since around 2010. 

• Published By: The report is produced by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in collaboration with the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre and other technical partners. The UNEP acts as the institutional lead. Each year it is released ahead of the major climate negotiations (the annual Conference of the Parties or COP) to inform global policymaking.

• Why It Matters: The Emissions Gap Report provides a clear metric of how far current efforts fall short of meeting the Paris Agreement’s goals. It gives policy-makers and the public an evidence-based reference on the scale of action required. The report highlights that if global commitments are not increased, the world could be headed toward a much higher rise in global temperatures. It helps shape the agenda for the next rounds of national climate commitments (Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs).

Key Findings of the Emissions Gap Report 2025

• Global Temperature: The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 reveals that the planet remains on a dangerous path of warming. Even with full implementation of all NDCs, the world is expected to warm by 2.3°C to 2.5°C by the end of this century. Under current policy trends, the temperature could rise to 2.8°C, well above the Paris Agreement target. These projections show that while progress has been made, it is not enough to avert severe climate consequences.
• Emissions Reduction Gap: To align global action with the Paris temperature limits, the report stresses that global emissions must drop by 35% to keep warming below 2°C and by 55% to reach 1.5°C compared to 2019 levels by 2035. This scale of reduction has never been achieved in human history. The gap reflects a growing disconnect between scientific requirements and policy commitments. 
• Climate Risk: The report warns that the 1.5°C limit will likely be breached around 2035, creating an overshoot scenario. Once crossed, bringing temperatures back down will require negative emissions technologies, including carbon capture, afforestation, and direct air removal. The findings show that delaying emission cuts today will make future climate stabilization harder and more expensive.
• Global Progress: Global temperature projections have fallen from about 3–3.5°C in 2015 to approximately 2.4°C in 2025, showing meaningful progress in policy commitments. About 90% of global emissions are now covered under national climate pledges, compared to just 65% in 2015. The world also witnesses rapid expansion in renewables, electric vehicles, and battery storage, indicating industrial readiness for low-carbon transformation.
• Stagnant Ambition: Despite more countries updating their NDCs, global ambition has stalled. The report notes that minor improvements in commitments have been offset by the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in the past and methodological adjustments in emission calculations. This stagnation proves that climate progress has plateaued rather than accelerated.
• Sectoral Emissions: The energy, industry, transport, and agriculture sectors remain the dominant sources of greenhouse gases. The report finds that fossil fuel dependence continues to exceed the growth rate of renewable energy adoption. Global energy demand is still heavily met by coal, oil, and natural gas, which together account for over 75% of total CO₂ emissions. 
• Climate Finance: The report highlights a severe finance gap in global climate action. To meet the 1.5°C pathway, climate finance flows must triple by 2030, but current funding levels cover only about one-third of what is required. Developing nations remain most affected by this shortfall as they rely on external financing for renewable energy projects, adaptation measures, and technology transfer.
• Geopolitical Instability: Geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty are identified as major barriers. The report cites that global fossil fuel subsidies exceeded $1.3 trillion in 2023, reversing earlier decarbonization progress. Conflicts and post-pandemic recovery pressures have also driven many nations to reinvest in fossil fuels for short-term stability. Rising debt burdens and weak international cooperation have slowed the pace of collective emission reduction efforts.
• Unproven Technologies: The UNEP warns against overreliance on Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) and Direct Air Capture (DAC) technologies. The report stresses that strong near-term emission cuts must remain the priority, rather than waiting for future innovations to compensate for inaction. Only nine G20 nations are currently on track to meet their stated NDC targets.
• Recommendations: The report recommends phasing out coal and oil, accelerating short-term emission cuts, and redirecting fossil fuel subsidies toward clean energy investments. It calls for global financial reforms, including debt swaps and concessional financing, to mobilize funds for sustainable transitions. UNEP also urges the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund and the creation of a unified framework to monitor emissions and climate finance transparently.