India Future Forest Carbon Storage Potential

India Future Forest Carbon Storage Potential

Why in News?

Recently, a study published in Environmental Research: Climate finds India’s forests could nearly double carbon storage by 2100, strengthening sink capacity but increasing ecological vulnerability risks.

Key Findings of Environmental Research: Climate Study on Future Potential

• Model-Based Scientific Approach: The study uses a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) with climate scenarios based on emission pathways. 
• Carbon Storage Growth Projections: The study projects a substantial rise in forest carbon biomass in India by 2100. 
  • Carbon storage is expected to increase by 35% (low emissions), 62% (medium), and up to 97% (high emissions scenario), indicating a potential near doubling of current capacity.
• Baseline and Future Carbon Density: The research estimates historical forest carbon density at 7.74 kgC/m², which could rise to 13.67 kgC/m² under high-emission scenarios by 2100. 
• Temporal Acceleration Trend: The study highlights that carbon accumulation will accelerate after 2050, driven by intensifying climate factors. 
  • This indicates a non-linear growth pattern, where future decades contribute disproportionately to total carbon storage gains.
• Key Biophysical Drivers: Two major drivers are identified: elevated atmospheric CO₂ and increased precipitation. 
  • Higher CO₂ enhances photosynthesis and water-use efficiency, while rainfall improves soil moisture availability
• Regional Variability in Gains: The increase is uneven across regions. 
  • Maximum gains are projected in desert and semi-arid regions, while carbon-rich ecosystems like the Western Ghats and Eastern Himalayas show limited growth, indicating spatial imbalance.
• Masked Ecological Stress Concern: Despite rising carbon stocks, the study warns of “masked stress”, where increased carbon does not necessarily reflect healthy ecosystems. 
  • Forests may face declining resilience and stability despite apparent gains. 
• Risk of Climate-Induced Disturbances: Higher temperatures increase vulnerability to droughts, wildfires, and heat stress, potentially reducing long-term carbon retention capacity. 
• Limitations of Current Modelling: The study acknowledges limitations, as models exclude key real-world factors like nutrient constraints, land-use change, and wildfire dynamics, suggesting that actual outcomes may differ from projections.

Current Status of Forest Carbon Stocks in India

• Total National Carbon Stock: India’s forests currently store about 7,285.5 million tonnes (Mt) of carbon, reflecting a steady but moderate increase in recent years. 
  • The stock has grown by 81.5 Mt compared to previous assessments, indicating gradual strengthening of the forest carbon sink capacity.
  • Earlier estimates show forest carbon stock ranged between 3161–3325 Mt during 2003–2007, indicating long-term growth over decades.
• Annual Carbon Sequestration Rate: Forests in India add nearly 40.75 Mt of carbon annually, equivalent to about 149.42 Mt of CO₂ sequestration per year. 
  • This highlights their crucial role in climate change mitigation and maintaining the national carbon balance.
• Carbon Pool Distribution: The majority of carbon is stored in soil organic carbon (55.06%), followed by above-ground biomass (32.69%) and below-ground biomass (10.09%). 
  • Smaller fractions exist in litter (1.48%) and dead wood (0.78%), showing that soil acts as the dominant carbon reservoir in Indian forests. 
• Forest Cover and Density Link: India’s forest cover has shown marginal increase (~23.59% of geographical area) with significant rise in very dense forests (22.7% growth in a decade). Higher density forests contribute more carbon per hectare.
• Degradation and Understocked Forests: Despite gains, over 40% of forests remain degraded or under-stocked due to deforestation, urbanisation, and resource pressure. 

Key Drivers Shaping Forest Carbon Dynamics

• Climate CO₂ Fertilisation Effect: Rising atmospheric CO₂ levels act as a major driver of forest change by enhancing photosynthesis and biomass growth. 
  • This “CO₂ fertilisation effect” increases vegetation productivity and carbon uptake, contributing to higher forest carbon stocks under future climate scenarios. 
• Rainfall Dominance and Lag Impact: Precipitation is the strongest national driver of forest carbon dynamics in India. The study shows rainfall influences carbon growth with a 2–4 year lag, improving soil moisture and vegetation density.
• Temperature and Climate Stress: Rising temperature levels increasingly shape forest carbon outcomes at regional scales. Higher warming leads to heat stress, drought vulnerability, and wildfire risks, which can reduce long-term carbon stability despite short-term biomass gains.
• Land Use Change and Degradation: Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) is a critical driver. Studies show vegetation carbon stocks vary widely (39.42–139.95 Mg/ha) due to land conversion. Deforestation and degradation cause both immediate and gradual carbon loss, weakening forest carbon sinks.
• Agriculture and Development Pressure: Expansion of agriculture, infrastructure, and urbanisation drives forest loss and fragmentation. 
  • The AFOLU sector still offsets about 533 MtCO₂e annually, but increasing land pressure and competing land uses create major uncertainty in sustaining carbon gains. 

Ecological Risks of Increased Carbon Storage

• Biodiversity Loss: Rising carbon-focused management can trigger decline in species richness. 
  • A 2024 Nature Communications study shows biodiversity loss could reduce global carbon storage by 7.44–145.95 PgC, creating a negative feedback loop between climate change and ecosystems.
• Monoculture Risk: Carbon maximisation often promotes single-species plantations. These forests store carbon quickly but lack ecological complexity. 
  • They are more vulnerable to pests, diseases, and climate shocks, reducing long-term stability of carbon sinks. 
• Carbon Tradeoffs: High carbon storage does not always mean high biodiversity. Studies show that beyond 100 MgC per hectare, the carbon–biodiversity relationship weakens, leading to species loss even in carbon-rich forests.
• Ecosystem Instability: Increasing carbon stocks can mask ecosystem instability. Forests face combined risks of droughts, wildfires, and ecological shifts, which threaten their ability to sustain carbon storage and biodiversity simultaneously.
• Disturbance Impact: Climate-induced disturbances like fires and deforestation release stored carbon rapidly. 
  • Forest loss has contributed nearly 30% of historical CO₂ emissions, while recent deforestation still accounts for about 10% of global emissions.

Way Forward 

• Restoration Focus: India must scale forest landscape restoration to meet United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change commitments. 
  • The Bonn Challenge pledge of 26 million hectares restoration provides a strong pathway. 
  • Priority should be given to degraded forests (over 40%), improving both carbon stock and ecosystem health through assisted natural regeneration.
• Diverse Planting: Shift from monoculture to mixed native species plantations is critical.
  • Studies show biodiverse forests store up to 30–50% more stable carbon over time compared to single-species systems.
  • This approach enhances resilience to pests, drought, and climate stress while protecting biodiversity and ensuring long-term carbon retention.
• Community Rights: Strengthening community-led forest governance under the Forest Rights framework improves outcomes. 
  • Evidence shows community-managed forests have better regeneration rates and lower degradation, directly improving carbon sequestration efficiency.
• Climate Adaptation: Future policies must integrate climate adaptation strategies. 
  • Adaptive measures like fire management systems, drought-resilient species, and early warning systems are essential to safeguard forest carbon stocks.
• Monitoring Systems: Robust carbon monitoring frameworks led by Forest Survey of India must expand. 
  • Use of remote sensing and GIS technologies ensures accurate tracking of forest cover and carbon pools.
  • Improved data systems reduce uncertainty and strengthen evidence-based policy decisions for sustainable forest management.